Is Twitter Twend Twailing Off?

At the recent Open Innovation Summit, along with the many great speakers there was a host of blogger correspondents providing real-time coverage of the conference via Twitter (@AndreaMeyer, @bhc3, @innovate, @IPStrategist, @lindegaard, @Renee_Innosight – sorry if I forgot anyone).  This is becoming a very common occurrence.  So much so that one blogger opined, “If a conference isn’t Tweeted, did it really happen?”

However, what I found interesting wasn’t the great Twitter coverage, but the conversation about Twitter that I heard in the hallways.  While most people in media or marketing positions would say that Twitter is invaluable, there seemed to be a lot of contrarian comments from people with different orientations.  Many people echoed the opinion of Ric Merrifield, Business Architect at Microsoft, who stated, “I’m not sold on Twitter.”  Ric is definitely not alone, and I have to admit to being among the skeptics.  I am active on Twitter because I feel it is an important experiment in social media that I want to take part in.  But this use motivation isn’t conducive to long term viability of a user community.

Recently, eMarketer reported that several research firms were reporting declines in the estimates of unique visitors in the US.  Nielsen Online estimated the drop from September to October was 27.8%.  Is this a blip in had previously been a meteoric rise, or a sign of things to come?  What do you think?

Comments

[Renee_Innosight]

Let me try this comment again..."Not sold on Twitter" tells me nothing. What are you not sold on it for? What's the context? I'm not sold on cars, either, if the context is a need for a dry, enclosed storage space (tho that can work pretty well!) or a piece of yard art. However, I'm really sold on cars as a way to get from Point A to Point B. What do you want Twitter to do for you? Only then can you figure out whether it's actually succeeding. Unless you got on Twitter and decided to somehow let it reveal to you what its value would be. If that's the case I'd say you're missing an opportunity to actually direct the value discovery process. :)

[James Todhunter]

Interesting point, Renee. However, any software that is aimed at mass deployment must fundamentally speak to a latent need (even though it may not have been previously expressed) of the user. If it succeeds in doing so, it will find an audience. If it doesn’t, adoption of the solution won’t happen. In that sense, the notion that a segment of the potential user space is not feeling sold is an inherently interesting phenomenon irrespective of the why. If I am a Twitter product marketing person, the why behind that sentiment is very interesting.

Fundamentally, it is the job of the application to make its value palpably felt. It is not the job of the consumer to figure it out. So if the value is not apparent, then there will be a disconnect. I think this has been something that has been a sub-theme in Twitter’s story.

It’s not surprising that media and marketing users find Twitter highly valuable. The value proposition seems pretty obvious. And consequently, it is no surprise that the leading rumors about Twitter monetization revolve around the creation of paid business accounts.

However, the recent unique user data is very interesting. The Twitter community was rising to stratospheric heights on the wings of a very focused and aggressive media campaign. But once the campaign stopped and Twitter had become old news, the growth curve faltered as one would expect. But now the question that remains is at what level can Twitter sustain its audience. This is vitally important for Twitter management to understand as it will in the end establish the value of the company.

[Renee_Innosight]

One of the most annoying and interesting things about Twitter (and a host of other Web 2.0 apps as well) is that its value was never really that apparent form the start. They really did seem to just toss it out there. And, as you've pointed out in tweets (hmmm, that's ironic!), and I have said myself more than once, it's strange that Twitter would allow second-party developers to create the apps that actually unlock much of Twitter's value.

[James Todhunter]

Totally agree. The model the emerged during the internet bubble years was ludicrous. Yet is has survived as common practice in the minds of many people who don’t seem to learn from the past. It has a really horrendous track record in terms of business success and viability however. A fact that gets pushed out of peoples’ heads every time the one-in-million success story captures their fancy. In reality, it’s just poor practice. (There are probably less kind, but more accurate, ways of saying that.)

[John Hunter]

I share your sentiments: I don't really see much value in Twitter but am trying it out. The following feature is nice (making it easy for people develop lists based on that data and letting you see who follows people and who they follow). And Direct Messaging can be useful. But overall I don't see the long term value.

[John]

This is one social experiment I have sat out and it doesn't impact anyone. Most of it has been driven by our obsession with stars as many people want to know what Ashton Kutcher and Demi Moore are doing daily, with trips on private jets to Las Vegas, movie locations etc. Renee, you are cute but I just don't care what you are doing day to day and James either. My car, I do care. Every marketing goof ball see's the potential in the numbers, but they are just following the herd.