As any CTO, I have to explore new technologies and market trends on a daily basis. Operating in the worlds of software and innovation makes this imperative even more essential. With the role of social networking and media still in its early stages of emergence, I have been watching (and using) the media darling, Twitter, for a while now. In March, I posted The Trouble With Twitter. Here are a few more comments on Twitter with two more months behind us.
Twitter is clearly undergoing some severe growing pains. There are many times when the service is slow and choppy. This undermines the user experience and cannot be good for the retention of users. Could it be that in the absence of a revenue stream that Twitter has made a conscious decision to not grow infrastructure to meet demand? Some recent changes in the service are suggestive as they seem to be targeted at reducing the traffic routing volume. Given the instability of the user experience, it is no surprise that reports have surfaced showing Twitter has an abysmal user retention rate compared to other leading social platforms.
Twitter has not yet shown that it is going to take control of its destiny. One gets the impression that they view themselves as an evolving bag of features. If this is so, it is not good for Twitter. They need to think of themselves as a platform for user experience and act accordingly. It’s great to have a lot of interested parties building apps around your technology and extending the capability models for you. But, this is no substitute for user experience design and truly understanding the needs and aspirations of your audience. Twitter needs to drive its own innovation agenda.
Lastly, it seems incredible that Twitter has still not given any indications of a monetization model. It’s not that hard. I have thought of several great strategies to monetize the platform, and I know many of you have also identified some interesting ideas. So, why is it that Twitter has not? You would think that if they put half the effort into the business model that they have put into hyping Twitter, they would have launched a successful monetization strategy by now. Meanwhile, the hype engine churns along. Of course, that could be a monetization strategy. While no one knows what Twitter’s business really is, anyone is free to imagine the potential as being as enormous as their own hubris. Yet as any politician knows, the minute you take a position, you lose votes. Could it be that Twitter finds itself in the awkward position of having a hype inflated value that is so high that any announcement of a specific business model will only reduce the current potential exit value? Hmm…
So after two more months of Twitter watching, I don’t find the prognosis for Twitter has improved much. What do you think?
It seems we have hit the latest technology 'bubble', in the guise of social networking technology. Similar to tech bubbles of the past, we are seeing great ideas sparked by innovative individuals. But, we are also seeing this explosion occur at such a rate as to be almost self-destructive. Just as fast as MySpace became THE social networking site, it was supplanted by Facebook. We've seen the rise and fall of LinkedIn/Plaxo and other business-oriented SN technologies. Now, Twittering is the latest craze... and as you highlight in your article, the latest facing a potential demise as it gets lost in its purpose and struggling with the lack of a coherent business model.
One has to wonder whether or not any of these current wunder-ideas will be relevant six months from now. The explosion in popularity in particular concepts leads to rapid adoption, which leads to the very typical erosion in scalability, leading to an erosion in popularity as the next 'new kid' takes the mind share.
Until people start to tap into these markets from a business / monetary standpoint, the innovation aspect will struggle to survive, or will be consumed by the next big thing...
Posted by: Dave | May 18, 2009 at 07:37 PM
I couldn't help but have a strange feeling of deja vu when the fail whale kept appearing in my window while I seated over the wing of a Wi-Fi enabled flight across the US.
http://bit.ly/kDuey
Posted by: Jim Belfiore | May 19, 2009 at 11:28 AM
Hi Dave & Jim,
Great insights!
The whole social networking space continues to evolve and we can certainly anticipate that it will look very different in the future. Will Twitter still be here in a year? Who knows.
But it is hard to ignore the irony in Jim's flight experience. How often do you see a whale flying? Perhaps the whale was a rather unfortunate chioce of symbol for failure, as it could be that the fail whale will drag Twitter down into Davy Jones' Locker.
Posted by: James Todhunter | May 19, 2009 at 02:19 PM